New threats from Bolsonaro against Brazil’s electoral system

Brazil’s democracy faces its sternest test since the return of civilian rule in 1985 when voters go to the polls on Sunday after a campaign that closed with new threats from president Jair Bolsonaro against the country’s electoral system.

In his latest attack on the electoral court, which will oversee voting, the far-right leader called its head, supreme court justice Alexandre de Moraes, a “scoundrel”, and demanded his impeachment. The development came a day after Bolsonaro’s party released a document that once again claimed Brazil’s highly-regarded electronic voting system is vulnerable to tampering.

Without providing evidence, it claimed these supposed vulnerabilities “could result in the internal or external invasion of the electoral systems, with a critical impact on the results of October’s elections”.

Published just days before voting, leaving the court with little time to respond to its accusations, the document is widely viewed as laying the groundwork for Bolsonaro to contest any eventual defeat, heightening concerns about his capacity to mobilise support in the event of a confrontation with the electoral court.

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During his near-four years in office the former army captain has assiduously cultivated the support of the military and state police forces. He has also managed to insinuate the armed forces into the vote counting process even though there is no constitutional basis for such a role, raising fears elements of the military could provide cover for any attempt to dispute the outcome.

But most military observers remain confident the active armed forces will remain in barracks should he attempt to contest the result. “Bolsonaro will not accept a defeat but I don’t expect any military movement in the sense of a coup or involvement in turmoil. I believe that the majority of the military will accept and act according to the constitutional rules of the game which is certainly different from Bolsonaro,” says Prof Paulo Ribeiro da Cunha of the Laboratory of Studies on the Military in Politics.

The late offensive by the president against the voting system comes as final polls show him 14 points behind his main rival, former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The latest survey by Datafolha showed Lula on 50 per cent, leaving open the possibility he could claim outright victory on Sunday.

If no candidate wins more than half the votes, the two frontrunners – almost certain to be Lula and Bolsonaro – will face each other in a run-off in four weeks’ time. In total 11 candidates are running for president in elections that will also select a new congress as well as state governors and legislatures.

Brazil election: Bolsonaro's January 6th moment?

Listen | 22:15

On Sunday, Brazilians will vote in a presidential election that pits former president Lula against incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is behind in the polls and, continuing his record of Trump-inspired politics, has claimed a loss could only mean voter fraud. But could he really hang on to power? From Sao Paolo, Tom Hennigan has the story of an election that could have global consequences.

In Thursday night’s final televised debate before the first round, Bolsonaro point-blank refused to respond to a question from right-wing also-ran Soraya Thronicke about whether he was planning to carry out a coup d’etat. Instead, in a response laden with sexual innuendo, he accused the senator of seeking jobs for her supporters in his administration.

The much-anticipated debate, which finished shortly before 2am on Friday, saw little substantial discussion of the issues. Instead the night was marked by a string of personal attacks, mutual accusations and at times farce involving a self-styled Orthodox priest Padre Kelson. Running for a party allied to the president he acted as an attack dog against Lula, whom Bolsonaro declined to confront directly, even when accusing him of being the “intellectual mentor” behind a notorious political murder in 2002.

“The debate was a horror show but unlikely to alter the race,” says political analyst André Pereira César. “Instead it reflected how far the quality of political debate has fallen in [a] Brazil contaminated by the attack culture of social networks.”

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During the debate Lula, who did prison time after a corruption conviction that was later quashed, struggled at times to remain calm against constant accusations of wrongdoing during his Workers Party’s 13 years in power, which ended in 2016.

At one point he got involved in a shouting match with Kelson that saw the broadcaster cut their microphones. The incident was celebrated by the Bolsonaro camp in the studio and widely viewed as a misstep by a candidate who, to win outright on the first round, needs to peel away those voters who tell pollsters they want Bolsonaro out but are suspicious of the Workers Party.

“The Workers Party strategy is to win on the first round because it knows a second round risks changing the race’s dynamics,” says Pereira César. “It will be brutal in which Bolsonaro will use every method, both legitimate and not, to turn the race around. It will be another month of campaigning marked by terror and panic.”